3 Scenarios for the UK's EU Referendum

The WEU is committed to keeping our members informed and regularly curates articles to help you make decisions that benefit you. As the UK EU referendum approaches, a flood of opinions will follow. The following article, 3 Scenarios for the Outcome of the UK’s EU Referendum, outlines three possible scenarios and underscores why this referendum is crucial for the UK’s future.

The WEU aligns with the RMT in supporting British withdrawal from the EU. However, we acknowledge that regardless of the referendum result—remain or leave—it will significantly affect the UK’s influence and strategy within the EU, as well as its internal politics. Remember, the UK has contributed over £500 billion to the EU since 1973.

Read the full article: 3 Scenarios for the Outcome of the UK’s EU Referendum

Three Possible Outcomes of the UK’s EU Referendum

Scenario One – A Clear Vote to Remain in the EU

All four UK regions vote to remain, delivering a decisive, non-divisive result. While Conservative eurosceptics may persist, the issue of EU membership will be settled for years. Brussels—and particularly Ireland—will breathe a sigh of relief, given Ireland’s strong exposure to Brexit risks.

Scottish independence advocates hoping for a second referendum will be disappointed. Yet an independent Scotland within the EU would benefit from open borders, free movement and trade. However, Prime Minister David Cameron’s negotiated deal—symbolic opt-out from “ever-closer union”—combined with the referendum outcome will reinforce the UK’s semi-detached, low-influence role in EU affairs. Future Tory governments are unlikely to rebuild the UK’s strategic clout in Brussels. A pro-EU Labour government could reverse this trend but might face critics claiming the referendum result endorsed a disengaged Britain in Europe.

Scenario Two – UK Votes to Remain Despite an English Vote to Leave

Current polls show 64% in Scotland, 75% in Northern Ireland and 55% in Wales favouring remain. If these levels hold, they could offset an English leave vote up to around 52%. This outcome would spark fresh constitutional debates. Eurosceptics, notably UKIP supporters in England, may push for dissolution of the UK or an independent Scotland. A future UK government would struggle to maintain an active EU strategy amid criticism from English eurosceptics. The UK will appear divided across its regions, with a narrow remain majority.

For Scotland, any renewed independence drive could trigger English demands for a second Brexit referendum. Brussels and the 27 other member states will appreciate Scotland’s role in keeping the UK in the EU—but will also fear England may seek another referendum without Scotland’s consent. For recent polling data, see NatCen.

Scenario Three – Brexit Proceeds as England Out-Votes the Other Regions

If 53% or more of English voters back Brexit, the combined remain votes in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will be overridden. This explosive outcome threatens UK unity, EU stability and specific states—especially Ireland. The EU has precedent for treating parts of member states differently (for example, Cyprus and Greenland). A second Scottish independence referendum becomes likely. Brussels and other EU capitals may actively support Scotland’s accession, viewing it as a way to prevent further disunion. Nicola Sturgeon will face pressure to call a referendum if independence support rises above 50%. Timing will be contentious—David Cameron or a successor PM may argue for waiting until exit negotiations conclude. The SNP must prepare to pursue parallel talks on Brexit, UK dissolution and Scotland’s EU membership.

An alternate outcome is Scotland remaining within the UK, despite opposing Brexit. In that case, relations will sour, the Common Travel Area with Ireland will face obstacles and the Scottish Government may demand devolved control over certain EU policies—education, research and agriculture—to maintain closer EU ties. Brussels’ history of creative territorial solutions suggests it may entertain such arrangements.

Conclusion: Long-Term Impact on UK Politics and EU Relations

Whether the UK stays in or leaves the EU, the referendum will reshape the country’s influence in Brussels and its internal politics. A united remain vote cements the UK’s semi-detached role; a split result fuels English nationalism and challenges future governments; a Brexit forces difficult negotiations, threatens UK integrity and prompts consideration of Scotland’s EU status. Prime Minister David Cameron called the referendum to quell Conservative eurosceptic tensions. Yet regardless of the outcome, the UK’s political landscape and EU engagement will be profoundly affected for years to come.